Do We Have a NZDCAD Bullish Reversal

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  • #8902
    Cristian Ravalli
    Moderator

    Nice one to be long NZD. This could be a nice holiday trade over the summer. Are you on it? How do you manage it? Several trades? Different stops/targets? I am interested to hear from you.

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    #8905
    Brijes Patel
    Participant

    Hi Cristian/ fellow TLT traders,

    I’d like to bounce my trade idea for this pair.

    As I feel AUDCAD has a higher probability of reversing (due to the hard level of resistance vs the soft level of resistance), I went for the AUDCAD and did not place an order for NZDCAD. However, when I zoomed out of this chart I noticed that targeting the lower levels as a powerzone buy might be more appropriate – as this is a hard level of resistance which coincides with a 1.618FIB level and ABCD pattern (see attached). Therefore, whilst I have my AUDCAD trade in place, this provides a decent opportunity to trade this pair as well by simply waiting to tested a better probability level.

    Would you have any further thoughts to this?

    B

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    #8911
    Cristian Ravalli
    Moderator

    Hey B,

    Apologies, for the late reply on this. I didn’t get notified of your post. Strangely. Must have been a technical glitch. Sorry again…

    With regards to your trade idea. I don’t see the candle on the weekly as a pin bar. Open and close aren’t in the top 50% of the bar. I can see your rationale on this one though. When I see two similar trades that I like and I don’t want to choose I often just split my risk and place them both. Personally, I prefer to place a power zone setup when there was a false breakout. That way I got more of an indication of where to place my stop.

    With regards to NZDCAD, it’s a bit late to comment now, because it’s already moving. I still liked the level it was bouncing off and the RR on it. Therefore I thought this is worth placing a trade on.

    What other trades have you got on, at the moment?

    Thank you for exchanging your ideas.

    #8913
    Cristian Ravalli
    Moderator

    today on NZDCAD you can see one of the reasons why it’s worth trading weekly setups. What do you think it is? You can see it rather well on the 1H or 4H chart.

    #8914
    Brijes Patel
    Participant

    Hey Cristian,

    Incidentally, Monday and Tuesday saw me get entered in on the AUDCHF and AUDUSD, both from powerbuy set ups. Incidentally, it was probably a very good idea for me not to be in the NZDCAD trade, as I realised that I’m overly risking on the AUD being bullish.

    Taking a stab on your follow-on post, am I right in thinking that the lower time frames are making consistent high’s and low’s and these are confluent with the RSI?

    #8918
    Cristian Ravalli
    Moderator

    Hey B,

    Sorry, for yet another late reply. I will from now on endure to check the forum every day. I am having a bit of a challenging time personally at this moment in time.

    It was definitively I good idea to not overexpose yourself. AUD and NZD are highly correlated anyway. Sometimes, when you realise you are overexposed in a currency it could also make sense to manage part of the trade more aggressively, in order to reduce your overall risk exposure. Instead of closing a trade prematurely.

    Yes, you are right in thinking so. I have also noticed that the RSI on the 4H AUDUSD has had some hidden divergence (the lows of the indicator are not producing HL).

    Having said that, personally, I am not putting too much weight on the indicators. They are just another element to add to the analysis. I stick to mainly candle reading, levels and fibs.

    Hope you are well, thanks for sharing! It’s great to be able to exchange.

    Not sure how you are managing your trades. But I moved my stop on NZDCAD below last weeks low. Because I think, if the price was to reverse the whole move it made last week, I’d rather be out of the trade. How are you managing your trades? Are you using different stops?

    Cheers
    Cris

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